2018年全球房地产趋向预测 2018 Worldwide Real Estate Forecast
奢侈房地产的世界是运动，起伏之一。财富在世界各地转移，总是在寻找新的机会。
在我们的全球市场中，我们看到资金有迁移模式。当你在一个地区施加压力时，无论是经济，环境还是政治压力，另一个地区都会做出反应。
纵观全球情况，出现了一些关键趋势。
美国加利福尼亚湾区房地产价格
在美国，由于一些沿海地区的房地产价格达到了创纪录的水平，因此一直在洗牌。
住宅和商业房地产，特别是加利福尼亚湾区的这些高价格导致科技公司及其员工扩展到其他市场，并在全国范围内形成其他科技飞地，包括西雅图，波特兰，丹佛，奥斯汀，匹兹堡和超越。
随着企业的发展，住宅房地产紧随其后，这就解释了为什么2017年北美的许多城市如此戏剧性地将亚马逊的新总部告上法庭的部分原因。
增长有其后果。新建筑未能跟上许多地区的住宅需求，推高价格。
分析师预测，2018年的新建筑将越来越多地关注单户住宅。在许多情况下，当一家大公司进入并迅速扩张时会产生压力。
与此同时，在大萧条期间，许多急需的领域，如建筑工人看到工人转移到其他领域，而且随着需求的恢复，该行业根本无法跟上房屋开工的步伐。
2017年，我们看到更多培训学校和国家主导的寻找和培训工人的举措。我们期望在2018年看到更多此类产品，以及模块化结构的增加以及传统粘贴式结构的其他替代方案，可以节省时间和金钱。
南北差距
加拿大近年来出现了房地产热潮，以至于政府一直试图通过对外国购买征税来阻止某些地区的房地产投机活动。
随着温哥华和多伦多的价格越来越高，蒙特利尔已成为外国房地产投资者的热门机会。
2017年10月的数据显示，价格上涨超过9％至386,911美元（加拿大），与大多伦多地区（平均价格为780,104美元（加拿大）和大温哥华地区相比，价格相当便宜，平均房价上涨）超过12％，平均为104万美元（加拿大）。
在蒙特利尔，与美国火爆的市场一样，低失业率引发了对房地产的兴趣，但价格上涨使一些买家无法进入市场。
在2018年，我们将关注新西兰境外购买者对该市场的限制措施。
新西兰丰富的自然美景使其受到硅谷精英的欢迎，并且中国投资者也越来越关注它。
由于对新西兰海外投资法案的拟议修改将侧重于现有房产，外国买家仍有机会在那里购买新房。
火灾，风暴驱动迁移
环境影响也是我们所看到的部分迁移模式的原因。
例如，在2017年影响加勒比海和南佛罗里达的飓风之后的一个即时反应是，一些计划购买加勒比房地产或甚至只是寒假的旅行者选择南佛罗里达。
迈阿密及周边地区也有来自波多黎各的租户涌入。而且这种混响已经远远超出了佛罗里达州，我们的房地产经纪人成员就夏威夷报道了之前在加勒比地区看过的买家的兴趣增加了。
2017年加利福尼亚州大规模火灾导致房地产市场受到类似影响，北加州和南加州有大量人口流离失所，库存和住房库存减少。亚利桑那州达拉斯，亚利桑那州图森和凤凰城等市场的潜在买家数量增加，这些买家正在逃离遭受火灾蹂躏的加利福尼亚地区。
另一方面，今天这种戏剧性的环境气候的积极方面是，当我们展望未来时，不断变化的需求已经导致创造出创新的解决方案。
在建筑和城市规划方面，加利福尼亚州及其他地区的国家正在致力于开发更多替代燃料来源，包括太阳能和广泛的“智能城市”解决方案以及城市规划和其他创造性解决方案，以便在环境中进行导航。
在西班牙和附近地區
政治变化也越来越成为决定下一步资金流动的压力点。
房地产市场对英国退欧的反应是多方面的。
英国脱欧公告后，伦敦房价立即下跌，投机者开始怀疑新金融中心的位置。这引起了巴黎和法兰克福等知名金融城市的新关注，并且代表了一个巨大的机会，因为以欧盟为中心的公司需要在伦敦以外的地区开展业务。
随着工人与公司一起转移，企业运动也会带来房地产的变化。
与此同时，在伦敦，豪华房地产市场的价格下跌为投资者创造了新的机会，并已吸引了来自中东，俄罗斯，美国及其他国家的买家，他们都对这种长期奢侈品的可能机会感兴趣飞地。
与此同时，随着我们转向关注欧洲大陆，西班牙已成为一个有趣的故事。
在2018年，加泰罗尼亚分裂国家企图的影响将继续在整个欧盟范围内产生影响，不仅影响西班牙，也影响其他国家。
这教导我们的是，这些类型的转变在未来几年可能会变得更加普遍。现实情况是，政治和财政交织在一起，政府更稳定的地区可能会增加兴趣。
全球，关于高净值个人和家庭以及豪华房地产市场的故事很强烈。
自2010年以来，净资产超过1000万美元的家庭增加了91％。那些高净值人士将房地产视为一种财务和个人投资。
从财务角度来看，房地产通常是一项很好的投资。
正如我们在今年共同撰写的大部分研究中所谈到的，富人认为房地产与他们为自己和家人创造更好生活的愿望保持一致。
在一个变化迅速且不断变化的世界中，多个领域的房地产投资往往被视为确保这些人的未来的一种方式。
The world of luxury real estate is one of movement, as well as ups and downs. Wealth shifts around the world, always seeking new opportunities.
In our global market, we see that money has a migration pattern. When you put pressure, be it economic, environmental or political in one area, another area responds.
Looking at the global picture, a few key trends emerge.
Piece in the valley
In the United States, there has been shuffling in the ranks as real estate prices have reached record levels in some coastal areas.
These high prices, for both residential and commercial real estate, particularly in California’s Bay Area have led to technology companies and their employees expanding to other markets and the formation of other tech enclaves around the country including Seattle, Portland, Denver, Austin, Pittsburgh and beyond.
Where businesses go, residential real estate follows, which explains part of the reason why in 2017 many cities in North America went to such dramatic ends to court Amazon’s new headquarters.
Growth has its consequences. New construction is failing to keep up with the residential demand in many areas, driving up prices.
Analysts are predicting that new construction in 2018 will increasingly focus on single-family homes. In many cases, there is a strain when a large company moves in and expands rapidly.
At the same time, many much-needed fields such as construction saw workers moving on to other fields during the Great Recession, and the industry simply has not been able to keep up with housing starts as demand returned.
In 2017, we saw more training schools and state-led initiatives to find and train workers. We expect to see more of this in 2018, as well as an increase in modular construction and other alternatives to traditional stick-built construction that can save time and money.
North and south pull
Canada has seen a real estate boom in recent years, so much so that the government has sought to prevent real estate speculation in some areas by taxing foreign purchases.
With Vancouver and Toronto becoming increasingly high priced, Montreal has emerged as a popular opportunity for foreign real estate investors.
Data from October 2017 shows prices up by more than 9 percent to $386,911 (Canadian), making it a substantial bargain compared to the Greater Toronto area, where the average is $780,104 (Canadian) and the Greater Vancouver area, where the average home price rose more than 12 percent to an average of $1.04 million (Canadian).
In Montreal, as in hot markets in the United States, low unemployment has fueled interest in real estate, but rising prices have kept some buyers from entering the market.
In 2018, we will be watching the effect that proposed restrictions on foreign buyers in New Zealand have on that market.
New Zealand’s rich natural beauty has made it popular with Silicon Valley’s elite, and it has also seen increased attention from Chinese investors.
Because the proposed changes to New Zealand’s Overseas Investment Act will focus on existing properties, there will still be opportunities for foreign buyers to buy new homes there.
Fire, storm drive migration
Environmental impacts contribute to part of the migration patterns we see as well.
For example, one immediate response in the wake of the hurricanes that affected the Caribbean and South Florida in 2017 was that some travelers who were planning to buy Caribbean real estate or even simply winter vacations are opting for South Florida instead.
Miami and surrounding areas have also seen an influx of renters from Puerto Rico. And the reverberation has been felt far beyond Florida, with our Realtor members as far as Hawaii reporting increased interest from buyers who may have previously looked in the Caribbean.
Similar impacts to the real estate market were felt as a result of the extensive California fires in 2017, with significant numbers of people being displaced in Northern and Southern California and lost inventory and housing stock. Markets such as Dallas, TX and Tucson and Phoenix in Arizona reported increases in potential buyers fleeing the fire-ravaged Californian regions.
On the flip side, the positive side of this dramatic environmental climate today is that as we look to the future, changing demands are already leading to the creation of innovative solutions.
When it comes to architecture and urban planning, states such as California and beyond are focusing on the development of more alternative fuel sources including solar and wide, extensive solutions for “smart cities” and urban planning and other creative solutions to navigate the environment.
Reign in Spain and elsewhere
Political changes are also increasingly a pressure point in determining where money moves next.
The reaction of the real estate market to Brexit has been multi-faceted.
Immediately upon the announcement of Brexit, prices in London dropped, and speculators started to wonder where will be the new financial center. This has brought new attention to established financial cities such as Paris and Frankfurt, and represents a great opportunity as European Union-centric companies need to incorporate outside of London.
With corporation movement comes real estate changes too, as workers shift alongside their companies.
Meanwhile, in London, price drops in the luxury real estate market have created new opportunities for investors and have already attracted buyers back from the Middle East, Russia, the United States and beyond, all interested in a possible opportunity in this long-time luxury enclave.
Meanwhile, as we shift to focus on mainland Europe, Spain has emerged as an interesting story.
In 2018, the impact of Catalonia’s secession attempts will continue to reverberate throughout the E.U., affecting not just Spain but other countries.
What this is teaching us is that these types of shifts may become more common in the coming years. The reality is, politics and finances are intertwined, and areas with more stable governments may see increased interest.
GLOBALLY, THE STORY about high-net-worth individuals and families and the luxury real estate market is strong.
Since 2010, there has been a 91 percent increase in households with more than $10 million in net worth. Those high-net -worth individuals see real estate as an investment financially and personally.
From a financial perspective, real estate is generally a good investment.
As we have talked about in much of the research we have co-authored over the year, the affluent see real estate in alignment with their desire to create better lives for themselves and their families.
In a world where change is rapid and ceaseless, real estate investment in multiple areas is often seen as a way to secure the future for many of these individuals.
- by Stephanie Anton
Executive vice president of Luxury Portfolio International and Leading Real Estate Companies of the World.
