2023 年美国房地产市场预测：房价会下跌吗？US Housing Market Predictions For 2023: Will Home Prices Drop?
在全国房价创下历史新高后，近几个月抵押贷款利率飙升给房地产市场带来了一些急需的压力。 但随着最近几周抵押贷款利率开始下降，许多经济学家对房价是否会在 2023 年之前继续缓慢下降或崩盘感到喜忧参半。 由于近年来以极低的抵押贷款利率购买房屋的人仍留在原地，因此该国的整体住房供应仍然有限。 这种紧张的库存阻止了价格进一步下跌，使得许多人，尤其是首次购房者仍然买不起房子。 尽管房价同比保持高位，但并不像今年早些时候那样令人大跌眼镜。 2023 年房价下跌的幅度可能取决于抵押贷款利率的走势。
2023 年房地产市场将走向何方
2023 年房地产市场将走向何方 许多房地产业内人士警告买家不要试图在经济艰难度过当前的不确定时期时把握市场时机。 “决定现在购买还是等待将取决于个人买家的动机和情况。 等待可能不是一个可行的选择，”明尼苏达州埃迪纳市 Keller Williams Realty 的房地产经纪人克里斯塔福斯伯格说。 “即使买家可以将暂停购买推迟到今年晚些时候或 2023 年，价格或利率也不可能有显着改善。” 房地产专家密切关注经济，由于居高不下的通胀、高利率、持续的地缘政治不确定性等因素，经济仍在向各个方向发展。 在房地产市场经历了几年的火热之后，有迹象表明调整正在进行中，但进展缓慢。 抵押贷款利率仍然是 2022 年第一周的两倍多，房价比一年前高出 6% 以上，这使得潜在买家更难获得经济适用房。 根据全国房地产经纪人协会 (NAR) 的数据，10 月份成屋销售价格中位数为 379,100 美元，同比增长 6.6%，但低于 6 月份创下的 413,800 美元的历史高位。 不过，根据抵押贷款银行家协会 (MBA) 的数据，由于抵押贷款申请处于 25 年来的最低水平，因此较高的住房成本对购房者造成了影响。 NAR 首席经济学家 Lawrence Yun 在报告中表示，9 月至 10 月，成屋总销售额下降了 5.9%，这是销售额连续第 9 个月下降，原因是购房者“被挤出抵押贷款资格”。 但这可能很快就会好转。 “自 11 月中旬达到峰值以来，抵押贷款利率已经下降，因此房屋销售可能接近当前房地产周期的底部” 。
2023 年房屋库存预测
自 2008 年新房建设骤降以来，住房库存低一直是一个挑战。 它从未完全恢复。 与其他低迷时期相比，仍接近历史低位的住房供应支撑了需求，从而维持了较高的房价。 “库存水平仍然紧张，这就是为什么一些待售房屋仍收到多个报价的原因，”Yun 说。 根据 NAR 的数据，按照目前的销售速度，库存供应量为 3.3 个月。 “[这] 大约是我们通常希望看到的一半，”ATTOM Data 市场情报执行副总裁 Rick Sharga 说。 “而且我们仍然有基于人口趋势的被压抑的需求。” 根据 NAR 的数据，房屋库存略高于 9 月份的 3.1 个月和一年前的 2.4 个月。 与此同时，新建筑的持续放缓正在挤压本已有限的住房供应。 根据美国人口普查局和美国住房和城市发展部的数据，10 月份单户建筑开工和建筑许可申请分别比上月下降 6.1% 和 2.4%。
房价何时会下跌？
关于房地产市场是否以及何时会崩溃，或者它是否会简单地从去年房价两位数百分比的上涨中“纠正”自己，经济学家们给出了不同的信号。 “我们估计全国会下降 5% 左右。不管你信不信，有些市场可能会看到价格继续上涨。” 其他专家指出，与 2008 年金融危机后的房主相比，如今的房主站稳脚跟，因此房地产市场崩盘的可能性很低。 Zillow 的经济学家妮可·巴乔 (Nicole Bachaud) 表示：“房主资产处于过去几十年的最高水平，因此房主的房屋价值很高。” Bachaud 还指出，抵押贷款产品的风险已经降低。 “与 2008 年之后的市场相比，抵押贷款市场有更多的监管和限制，使其更强大、波动更小、风险更低”。 在房地产市场崩盘中，您通常会看到房价下跌 20% 到 30%，房屋销售量下降——远远超过目前的情况。 另一个缺失的崩溃症状是止赎活动的激增。 “我认为我们更有可能看到市场降温，而不是崩溃”。
2023 年会出现更多止赎吗？
尽管迄今为止止赎的数量没有显着增加，但自从联邦政府于 2021 年 9 月结束 Covid-19 止赎暂停令以来，止赎开工率一直在稳步上升。 根据 ATTOM Data Solutions 的数据，上个季度和一年前相比增长了 167%，处于大流行前的范围内。 “我们的止赎活动仍在正常水平的一半左右”。 他预计我们要到 2023 年年中左右才能恢复到“正常”水平，这取决于是否出现衰退。 与上次住房危机相比，现在的一个关键区别是，近年来许多房主，甚至是那些努力支付房款的房主，他们的房屋价值都得到了大幅提升。 这意味着他们仍然拥有自己房屋的资产，并且不会处于水深火热之中——当您欠的钱超过房子的价值时 “。(E）即使取消了止赎禁令......我们也没有看到大量止赎，因为人们拥有如此多的资产”。
我应该现在买房还是等待？
在任何市场买房都是一个高度个人化的决定。 由于房屋是大多数人一生中最大的一次购买，因此在投资之前保持稳健的财务状况至关重要。 使用抵押贷款计算器根据您的首付和利率估算您每月的住房成本。 试图预测明年可能发生的事情并不是最好的购房策略。 Compass 总裁内达纳瓦布 (Neda Navab) 表示：“今天因预期明天价格会更低而观望的买家最终可能会失望。” Navab 预计，在过去几年价格大幅上涨的一些昂贵市场和其他地区的房价可能会有所下降，但她预计不会出现像 2008 年金融危机那样的全国性大范围房价下跌。 因此，与其等待更低的价格，不如根据您的预算和需求买房。 如果您在自己喜欢的地区找到自己喜欢的房子，而且它也符合您的预算，那么它很可能适合您。 然而，如果你为了买房子而做出太多牺牲，你可能会以买家的悔恨和昂贵的信天翁而告终，你可能不得不卸下。
在火热的房地产市场中购买的技巧
从预算开始并坚持下去。 即使待售房屋数量略有增加，购房者仍面临价格上涨和接近 7% 的抵押贷款利率。 “现在最大的问题是买家和卖家之间的脱节，买家想要低价，而卖家想要去年的价格。 虽然买家现在有了更多的喘息空间，但他们在考虑选择时应该记住，这仍然是卖方市场。
在火热的房地产市场上出售的技巧
成功销售的第一步是找到了解该地区并受到强烈推荐的上市代理人。 一个好的代理人会与您密切合作，为您的房屋定价具有竞争力，同时回答潜在买家的问题和报价。最近有大量房屋脱离托管，这对继续要求 2021 年价格的卖家来说是一个警示。 每个人都认为他们的房子很特别。 即使市场可能仍然对您有利，以最好的方式展示您的房屋符合您的最大利益。 不是每个人都有专门用于翻新和维修的现金，但一点点汗水资产可以大有帮助。 第一步是整理、整理和清洁。 即使您的房子已经过时，干净的空间也能让买家有机会设想房子的潜力。
Surging mortgage rates have put some much-needed pressure on the housing market in recent months after home prices hit record highs across the nation. But as mortgage rates have begun to decline in recent weeks, many economists are mixed about whether home prices will continue their slow decline through 2023–or crash.
The nation’s overall housing supply remains limited, as those who purchased homes in recent years at extremely low mortgage rates are staying put. This tight inventory has kept prices from seeing deeper declines, making homes still unaffordable for many, especially first-time homebuyers.
Even though home prices remain high year-over-year, they’re not as eye-popping as they were earlier this year. How far home prices dip in 2023 will likely depend on where mortgage rates go.
Where the Housing Market is Headed In 2023
Many housing insiders warn buyers against trying to time the market as the economy wades through its current period of uncertainty.
“Deciding to buy now or wait is going to depend on the individual buyer’s motivation and situation. Waiting may not be a viable option,” says Krista Forsberg, a real estate agent at Keller Williams Realty in Edina, Minnesota. “Even if a buyer can push pause on buying to later in the year or 2023, there isn’t likely to be significant improvement in prices or interest rates.”
Housing experts maintain a watchful eye on the economy, which is still being pulled in all directions by stubbornly high inflation, steep interest rates, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, to name a few.
After a couple of red-hot years for the housing market, there are indicators a correction is underway, but it’s been slow-going. Mortgage rates are still more than double what they were the first week of 2022 and home prices are more than 6% higher than a year ago, making it harder for would-be buyers to access affordable housing.
The median existing-home sales price was $379,100 in October, up 6.6% from a year ago but down from the record high of $413,800 in June, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Still, the higher housing costs have taken a toll on home shoppers as mortgage applications are at their lowest level in 25 years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Total existing-home sales dropped 5.9% from September to October, marking the ninth consecutive month of declining sales, as home shoppers were “squeezed out of qualifying for a mortgage,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, in the report.
But that could turn around soon.
“Mortgage rates have come down since peaking in mid-November, so home sales may be close to reaching the bottom in the current housing cycle,” said Yun.
Housing Inventory Forecast for 2023
Low housing inventory has been a challenge since the 2008 housing crash when the construction of new homes plummeted. It has never fully recovered.
Housing supply that remains near historic lows has held up demand compared to other downturns, consequently sustaining higher home prices.
“Inventory levels are still tight, which is why some homes for sale are still receiving multiple offers,” Yun said.
At the current sales pace, inventory is at a 3.3-month supply, according to NAR.
“[This] is about half of what we’d like to see normally,” says Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at ATTOM Data. “And we still have pent-up demands based on demographic trends.”
Housing inventory is up slightly from 3.1 months in September and 2.4 months a year ago, according to NAR.
In the meantime, the ongoing slowdown in new construction is squeezing the already limited housing supply. Single-family construction starts and applications for building permits in October were down 6.1% and 2.4%, respectively, from the previous month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
When Will the Home Prices Fall?
There are mixed signals from economists about if and when the housing market will crash, or if it will simply “correct” itself from the double-digit percentage jumps seen in home prices the past year.
“We’re estimating about a 5% drop nationally,” says Sharga. “Some markets, believe it or not, will probably see prices continue to increase.”
Other experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, so the likelihood of a housing market crash is low.
“Homeowner equity is at the highest level it’s been in the past several decades, so homeowners have a lot of value in their home,” says Nicole Bachaud, an economist at Zillow.
Bachaud also notes that mortgage products have become less risky.
“There are a lot more regulations and restrictions in the mortgage market that make it a lot stronger, and less volatile and less risky, than it was in the market after 2008,” she says.
In a housing market crash, you would typically see a 20% to 30% drop in home prices and a decline in home sales—far more than what’s currently happening. Another crash symptom that’s been missing is a jump in foreclosure activity.
“I think we’re more likely to see the market cool, rather than crash,” Sharga says.
Will There be More Foreclosures in 2023?
While there hasn’t been a significant jump in foreclosures to date, foreclosure starts have been on a steady quarterly rise since the federal government ended the Covid-19 foreclosure moratorium in September 2021. Foreclosure starts were up roughly 1% in the third quarter from last quarter, and 167% from a year ago, coming within range of what they were pre-pandemic, according to ATTOM Data Solutions.
“We’re still running at about half of normal levels of foreclosure activity,” Sharga says. He doesn’t expect we’ll return to “normal” levels until around mid-2023, depending on whether there’s a recession.
A key difference now compared to the last housing crisis is that many homeowners, and even those struggling to make payments, have had a large boost to their home values in recent years. That means they still have equity in their homes and are not underwater—when you owe more than the house is worth.
“(E)ven as the foreclosure moratorium was lifted…we didn’t see a huge flood of foreclosures because people have so much equity,” says Bachaud.
Should I Buy a Home Now or Wait?
Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.
Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down payment and interest rate.
Trying to predict what might happen next year is not the best homebuying strategy. “Buyers sitting on the sidelines today in anticipation of lower prices tomorrow may end up disappointed,” says Neda Navab, President at Compass.
Navab expects home prices in some expensive markets and other areas that saw substantial price gains over the past few years may decrease somewhat, but she doesn’t expect a widespread, national price decline like that of the 2008 financial crash.
So, instead of waiting for much lower prices, buy a home based on your budget and needs. If you find a home you love in an area you love, and it also fits your budget, then chances are it might be right for you. However, if you make too many sacrifices just to get a house, you may end up with buyer’s remorse and an expensive albatross you might have to offload.
Tips for Buying in a Hot Housing Market
Start with a budget and stick with it. Even with a slight uptick in the number of homes for sale, buyers are still facing elevated prices and mortgage rates nearing 7%.
“The biggest thing right now is the disconnect between buyers and sellers,” says Rita
Tayenaka, owner of Orange County, California-based Coast to Canyon brokerage. “Buyers want to lowball, and sellers want last year’s price.”
While buyers are getting a bit more breathing room now, they should keep in mind that it’s still a seller’s market while they consider their options.
Tips for Selling in a Hot Housing Market
The first step for a successful sale is to find a listing agent who knows the area and comes highly recommended. A good agent will work closely with you to price your home competitively while fielding questions and offers from prospective buyers.
Tayenaka points to the outsize number of homes falling out of escrow recently as a cautionary tale for sellers who continue to demand 2021 prices. “Everyone thinks their house is special,” she says.
Even though the market may still be tipped in your favor, it’s in your best interest to present your home in the best possible light. Not everyone has cash dedicated to renovations and repairs, but a little sweat equity can go a long way. The first step is to declutter, organize and clean. Even if your home is outdated, a clean space gives buyers a chance to envision the house’s potential.
Original Source: Forbes ADVISOR, Updated Date: December 21, 2022
